Most people would have been happily unaware that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was due to meet yesterday. All focus has been on getting the kids out the door and back to school (or for those without kids, recovering from another BBQ where a little too much of everything was consumed). Either way, the only discernable activity I have noticed this week has had been a collective rush to the nearest café for a quiet latte.

The first meeting of the RBA was unremarkable for another reason. Experts had been predicting since the last RBA meeting on Melbourne Cup day that rates would continue to rise steadily in 2010 - starting from the RBA met in February. And who needs bad news like this whilst we all head to the beach to enjoy a summer holiday.

This consistent and unanimous view of the so-called “experts” had also disappeared off the news radar because it seemed that certain as to almost be “fact”. And where is the news in that!

And then something happened…the RBA did nothing. It left rates untouched. The decision to not raise official interest rates was seen as such a surprise that one morning expert likened it to a $1.02 favorite getting beaten (he may as well have just likened it to Federer losing to Murray). Anyway, the decision was so unexpected that the Australian dollar fell by over 1c against the US dollar while our share market surged 2%.

The RBA has pointed to a few factors in announcing its decision. Uncertainty about retail spending, concerns about the difficulty for smaller businesses to raise finance and also some lingering concerns about global finance conditions.

The also RBA noted that Australian banks had increased their margins over the RBA rates by around 1% in the last few years, which had also contributed to the RBA deciding to not increase rates further at this point…see the banks really were thinking of you, and not their profits, when they raised their rates…mmm!

So rates stay on hold for another month but the RBA made it clear yesterday that future rate rises are likely and the “experts” are still talking about rates going up by as much as 1.25% over the course of 2010…although some are starting to concede that the rate rise may not be that great.

Anyway, rates stay the same for another month but start budgeting for future rate rises now. It’s a certainty, like Roger Federer. And how often would you be prepared to bet that against him!